Today’s CFO market is beyond hot, it is on fire. Not since the dot com heydays of 1999 and 2000 have we seen a market like this. Insiders such as CFOs and Investors see it. CEOs trying to attract talent see it. Executive recruiters are feeling it every day. I spoke with a female CFO last week who told me I was the 12th recruiter to call her in the preceding week! She only took my call because she knows me.
What is going on? Why is this happening and what can be done to solve what seems to be an intractable imbalance of supply and demand?
A blistering IPO market
Certainly, the obvious answer is the IPO market. Check out this data:
- Nationwide, there have been 368 IPOs total this year to-date.
- In 1999 there were 486 IPOs.
- In the Bay Area alone there have been 86 IPOs YTD, with several more in the pipeline before this year concludes.
- Last year was almost as equally hot—with 407 total IPOs nationwide and 76 in the Bay Area.
- In the previous 10 years the US was seeing about 176 IPOs on average—so the last two years, 2020 & 2021, reflect a significant increase in IPO activity.
IPOs drive the CFO market for sure. It is almost impossible to IPO without a CFO. There is a follow-on to CFOs getting recruited to IPO companies as well—it creates a vacuum from the companies they came from and it creates more ROI for investors who plow those winnings into new ventures, which in-turn need CFOs. It is the cycle of capitalism, but the supply chain hiccup in this case is not a shortage of truck drivers, rather a shortage of CFOs.
Regular readers of my blog know that I have been warning of a systemic shortage of CFO talent in the coming years for a long time now. It is upon us. Baby Boomers are retiring at a massive clip, and the pandemic accelerated this already impactful macro effect on the labor market. Many CFOs are reaching the CFO tier for the first time in their fourties. But many more are in their sixties, probably on their last rodeo. The generation following the Boomers is the smallest generation in the workplace. Hot IPO market or not, there just may not be enough people to fill all the seats the Boomers are leaving empty. In addition to this macro demographic, plenty of CFOs I have talked to in the last two years are saying this role they are in now is the last. Many of them have the money to retire and just do not want to grind out another one, no matter the rewards or their age.
Cash, cash, cash – return, return, return
The amount of capital to be invested remains at an all-time high. Venture and Private Equity investors do not get paid to sit on cash. They are looking to put capital to work and it is available. The chart just keeps going up, up, up, with 2020 seeing venture investment of roughly $130B in the US alone. With the IPO market refueling the coffers this does not seem to be a bubble. The big difference between the dot com era of venture investing and IPO exits and today’s market is that the companies this time around are real. They have real revenue, sustainable growth and it is not just one sector. Technology is changing the world we live in on all fronts, not just how we shop. From clean energy, to biotech, to food, to software to crypto and beyond companies are growing by finding real solutions to today’s challenges. (Can someone fix the supply chain soon please?) These companies are not seeking eyeballs, they are providing tech-enabled goods and services that result in money being exchanged and value being created.
So what to do if you are looking for a CFO?
First off, it is really important to know what you need in your CFO before you start looking to hire someone for the role. This may sound obvious, but in my many years of recruiting for CFOs I speak from experience. I frequently meet clients who think they need one set of skills and experience when really they need wildly different things. Don’t knee jerk into this market. Finding the right person demands knowing what is key. This may be much more subtle than first glance. For example, I hear from many entrepreneurs that the CFO MUST HAVE IPO experience. This is the most overrated skill for a CFO I can think of. The second thing a lot of CEOs get stuck on is that the CFO must come from _________ industry. (Fill in the blank.) It generally is not true and may be more of a nice to have than a must have skill for most companies.
Broaden, don’t narrow
While successful searches usually correspond to a well-thought-out target audience, my general advice on the current CFO front is to keep that audience as large as possible. Yes, I have conducted searches such as: CFO Must be female, must be willing to come to the office everyday, must bring consumer internet industry experience, with an IPO under her watch. We ended up with most of that list. But the key is to be flexible—most of what a CFO does is fungible across industry lines. If we have learned anything in this pandemic it is that people can be highly effective working remotely. I guarantee that the majority of these IPOs this year were not led by CFOs with IPO experience. The other thing to do is to look for finance executives in larger companies in “#2” roles who have most everything you need to succeed in the role. It can pay to get creative — not only in what and where you look, but also in how you go about it.
Phone a friend
I recommend you call your trusted CFO recruiter for help in this market. While we do not have a magic wand, we do have some tricks in the bag which can bring results—like getting a return phone call above the 11 others that may not. We have some other learned experience as well— did I tell you about the “living plant” close technique?
Maybe next time…Happy Hunting! Thanks, Dave